As inflation soared, energy prices climbed, and geopolitical tensions sent shockwaves through the global economy, consumers across Germany faced an unprecedented cost-of-living crisis from 2021 to 2024. While headlines focused on macroeconomic indicators, a new data-driven study offers a rare glimpse into how ordinary people weathered these turbulent years, and who among them fared better or worse.
This research, jointly conducted by the ifo Institute, the Technical University of Munich, and Europe’s leading digital bank N26, analyzes anonymized, long-term banking data from 20,000 N26 users. The findings provide a behavioral snapshot of real income, spending, and credit use during a period of economic stress and gradual recovery. At its core, the study reveals a story of resilience, inequality, and adaptation, with distinct patterns across gender, age, and geography.
A New Kind of Economic Data
Traditionally, consumer finance studies rely on self-reported surveys or sparse public datasets. This study, however, takes a more dynamic approach: It tracks actual banking behavior over four years. All participants consistently used their N26 account as their primary bank account, allowing researchers to analyze income flows, expenses, overdraft usage, and regional or demographic variations with a high degree of precision.
This method enabled the authors, Oliver Falck, Alice Fleischmann, Daniel Lappas, our researcher Emanuel Renkl, and Sebastian Wichert, to trace how different consumer groups navigated financial stress and how long the aftershocks of inflation lingered.
Initial Situation: Financial Squeeze from All Sides
The years between 2021 and 2023 were marked by a perfect storm: rising energy prices, pandemic aftershocks, disrupted supply chains, and the war in Ukraine. The result? A dramatic surge in inflation and widespread pressure on household budgets.
The data shows that in nearly all demographic groups, variable consumer spending rose faster than incomes during the early crisis years. Between 2021 and 2023, variable expenditures rose by 23.8%, while income increased by only 20.3%. Many consumers bridged the gap using savings or overdrafts, a sign of financial strain.
By 2024, the tide began to turn. Incomes rose more sharply than spending, prompting a modest recovery in purchasing power. But the relief was uneven, and its reach limited.
Key Findings: Who Coped Best?
1. Women Showed Greater Financial Resilience
While men saw greater average income gains (27.4% versus women’s 24.4% from 2021 to 2024), women managed their finances more cautiously. Despite facing higher increases in daily expenses, they spent less overall and used overdrafts 34.2% less frequently than men. This suggests a more disciplined approach to budgeting and better resilience in times of crisis.
2. Younger Adults: High Earners, High Spenders
Consumers in their 20s experienced the highest income growth (a 41.8% increase), driven possibly by early career momentum or job changes. However, their spending also spiked significantly, both in fixed and variable costs. The net result: higher financial volatility. While many were able to reduce overdraft reliance by 2024, the initial years were marked by considerable pressure on their budgets.
3. Older Consumers Struggled the Most
Germans aged 50 to 60 saw the lowest income growth, just 15.7% over the same period. Yet their expenses, especially housing and basic needs, continued to rise. Many in this group increasingly relied on overdrafts and had limited flexibility to cut back. These findings point to a widening vulnerability among older populations who may be less mobile in the job market and more exposed to fixed costs like rent.
4. Urban vs. Rural Divide
Geography played a role, too. Consumers in large cities rebounded more quickly from financial stress, using overdrafts 35.6% less frequently in 2024 than those in smaller towns or rural areas. Although income and spending levels rose similarly across regions, urban consumers were seemingly better equipped, or had better access to financial tools, to manage the crisis.
Why it Matters
The findings go far beyond demographic patterns: the cost-of-living crisis has deeply influenced how people handle their finances. This study provides a rare glimpse into real-world behavior, based on anonymized transactional data.
• For policymakers, it highlights specific population segments — such as older consumers and those with high housing costs — where financial pressure remains elevated.
• For financial institutions, the behavioral data sheds light on saving patterns, risk exposure, and the potential demand for more adaptive financial tools.
• For society at large, it serves as a reminder that financial resilience isn’t solely tied to income but also to spending habits, support systems, and the ability to adapt.
The use of transactional data in this context opens new doors for economic research. Unlike surveys based on memory or perception, this approach reflects actual behavior — revealing how people really spent, saved, or borrowed.
Looking Ahead
While financial indicators have shown signs of recovery in 2024, the analysis suggests that the effects of recent inflationary shocks persist — particularly for low-income households and tenants in high-rent areas. Many still face limited financial flexibility, as shown by ongoing reliance on overdraft facilities.
To enhance financial resilience in the long term, the authors point to areas that merit attention:
• Housing costs, which remain a key pressure point for many
• The availability of affordable credit, especially for financially stretched households
• The role of financial education and tools that support better saving behavior
This perspective gains urgency in the face of ongoing global uncertainties — from geopolitical tensions to climate-related shocks — that continue to challenge household finances.
Resilience Is Uneven — But Not Random
This new research confirms what many suspected: the inflation crisis did not hit all Germans equally. Age, gender, geography, and income all shaped how consumers responded. But while the crisis exposed vulnerabilities, it also revealed strength, especially among women and younger consumers willing to adapt and adjust.
As the dust settles, the lessons from this multicrisis period will be essential for shaping future financial policy, product design, and support for those still feeling the pressure. With its unique, data-rich approach, the study offers a powerful lens into the true state of consumer finances in Germany, and how we might prepare for the next crisis better than the last.
To the study: https://www.ifo.de/publikationen/2025/monographie-autorenschaft/how-consumers-have-managed-multicrisis-evidence-across
